predictions and results
Brent Finnegan -- November 7th, 2006
Open thread for predictions, results, and voting experiences. Please add yours in the comments.
UPDATE 7: 12:54: RECOUNT! Canvasses at 8. Don’t wait up. It’ll be weeks… Good night.
UPDATE 6 – 11:42: Looks like Parker pulled a Nader. She may have been the deciding factor in this election. Remember when she was negotiating with Allen and Webb to get one of them to back the rail solution in return for her voters? I’ll bet Webb’s wishing he had negotiated right about now.
UPDATE 5 – 9:25: Looks like I was wrong about H’burg. Allen took it, 49.80% – 48.93%. But I was right about everything else. Way beat Purcell in Dayton, and SBE has all the local town elections here… Man, this senate race is still ridiculously close. There’s gonna be a recount.
UPDATE 4.1 – 7:45: The numbers are all over the place. Just check SBE periodically (if you can — the server is currently bogged down with bloggers). You can view Harrisonburg and Rockingham results seperately as the precincts report in.
UPDATE 3 – 6:23: Not sure how accurate this is, but Think Progress is showing Democrats (including Webb) ahead in most senate races in the exit polls. Webb 52 – Allen 47.
UPDATE 2 – 6:05: Been having server problems this evening. Hopefully dreamhost will have it fixed soon, because this is a bad day for those sorts of problems.
UPDATE: I’ve been listening to the podcasts from Bearing Drift this afternoon. Saxman called and did a short interview. I wish someone around here did podcasts like that… Also, I added a poll just because I’m bored with news articles right now. You don’t need to be a registered hburgnews user to vote.
ORIGINAL POST:
I’m not even going to bother to venture a guess as to whether Webb or Allen will win the election, but here’s what I’m guessing…
Amendment 1 passes, but not by much.
Webb takes Harrisonburg by a small margin (based on previous results)
Allen takes Rockingham and carries the 6th district by a hefty margin.
-finnegan
Weyers Cave was busy this morning. There was a really great turn out with a good mix of older and younger voters.
I heard one of the old men there say that it looked like a presidential election.
The republicans where handing out sample ballots but there was no sign of the democrats.
I think Webb will win by 5 points.
I’m optimistic: go Webb! go non-discrimination!
On a related note, I feel like Webb could have gained 10 pts if he ran a commercial that said, “If I’m elected, I’ll be the only congress person with a kid fighting in Iraq.”
Agreed. I’m surprised Webb didn’t bring up his son more often.
Keister Elementary was packed this morning around 9:45. I had to wait 5 minutes to find a parking space. I saw at least 10 times more Allen signs than Webb, and I didn’t see any “Vote NO” signs at all. Council member Charles Chenault and HPD Lt. Boshart were standing on the sidewalk campaigning for Allen… I still say Webb takes H’burg, though.
The lady inside asked me if I wanted to vote electronically or on a paper ballot. I asked her how they do recounts with electronic votes. She shrugged, and I took the paper ballot.
Man, I wish we had a hotly contested House race in the 6th. I’d love to see a viable Goodlatte challenger, but he’s set to be the next Strom Thurmond. He’s been in that seat since ’92.
Chris Graham is calling it for Webb.
Republitarian is also saying Webb.
Predictions
Hburg: Webb and “No” (squeaking by for both)
Rockingham Co: Allen (narrow margin) and “Yes” (wide margin)
VA: Webb (surprisingly decent margin) and “Yes” (narrow margin)
Call for recount by Allen when Webb wins: Yes
Electronic polls will come in to play: Yes
Me: Glad I voted on paper.
My predictions: Allen by less than 5 points (thanks to strong evangelical Christian turnout), Goodlatte with about 60% of the vote (Peery 30, Pryor 10), Amendment 1 passes by 15 or more points. Reasons: Allen campaign has successfully confused people about what kind of person Webb is, churches get out the vote for the marriage amendment in huge numbers, it’s raining and afternoon/evening turnout dwindles compared to a strong turnout in the morning.
Nationally the Democrats take the House, but not the Senate. Nancy Pelosi does not become the Speaker, but someone else does. President Bush emphasizes the trust people have in the direction he’s taking the country and emphasizes his low-tax stance. Oh, and the Iraq War drags on, universal health care goes nowhere, and the government runs a deficit through the remainder of Bush’s term.
I think I’m going to cry.
I’m too scared to even make a prediction. I don’t want to jinx anything. I found a 1990 Webb speech today that I wish I would have found 3 months ago.
http://www.jameswebb.com/speeches/confedmemorial.htm
Thanks, Gxeremio. You’re the one who made it rain today, aren’t you?
Yeah, Webb is without a doubt a southern moderate. But as Gxeremio so glumly pointed out, the Allen camp has confused voters as to what sort of man Webb is. Of course, the same could be said of Webb supporters like Stark about Allen.
What has the turnout been like where everyone is voting? Mine seemed high for a midterm election.
The real Larry Sabato says that Webb will win, and that the Dems will gain control of the House and Senate.
I live in Staunton, and the turnout at my polling station was considerably high. About 700 just before 10am.
I voted at Keister around 5:15 and people were having to park down by the road. A person behind me said, “This looks like a presidential election” and I agreed.
CNN reports a web victory, while the State Board of Elections site maintains an Allen lead. The difference is in Isle of Wight County, where the state site reports 5,050 votes for Webb, while the CNN site reports 9,050 votes there for Webb. The 4,000 vote difference makes all the difference in these two projections, when the difference between the votes is less than 2,000 votes.
Clearly, I meant a Webb victory, not a web victory. I reported the discrepancy to CNN and NBC29 but we’ll see if either look at it or not. I would be very pleased to be wrong in my prediction!
Nice find, Gxeremio…
But I’m seeing on SBE that Isle of Wight went for Allen.
Yeah, I know. That’s the difference between SBE and CNN. Haven’t checked the other networks, but I saw that the CNN projections were on the screen at the Webb headquarters (saw it on TV), so I checked them first.