Brent Finnegan -- February 6th, 2008
Contrary to what many of us thought, Virginians are waking up this morning to the realization that the presidential primaries aren’t over yet. I’m already seeing lots of political campaign ads on TV. As Joe mentioned, our primaries are next Tuesday.
Will any of them even visit the Valley? Anyone taking bets how Harrisonburg/Rockingham will vote? Consider this the primary open thread.
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Well it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out how things will go in this area. As much as I wanted Obama to blow Hillary out of the water last night, I’m kind of happy that my vote might actually count even a little bit.
I’m not sure I follow your meaning, Emmy. This isn’t Republicans vs Democrats. It’s D vs D and R vs R.
I haven’t really analyzed it yet, but I’m guessing H’burg and possibly RoCo will go Obama. I’ll have to get Adam to share his thoughts.
For anyone interested, there will be an organizational meeting this Thursday for people that want to Volunteer for Obama in Harrisonburg.
Go to this link for more information.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/4rhzk
As far as the city goes, it’ll be interesting to see how much participation comes from JMU and EMU. I work as an election judge in Stone Spring (where a lot of JMU is registered to vote), and, over the last couple of years, the only election where college students came out in even moderate numbers was to vote against the gay marriage amendment.
Obama does especially well with younger voters and highly educated ones; lots of both in the city. I guess it depends on who takes time to go to the polls.
I can sort of make the case for Huckabee doing well enough in the county to make trouble for Romney and McCain, but Romney kind of appeals to the Chamber Republicans, so he might do well, too.
Oh, and I’m confused…are we the Potomac or the Chesapeake Primary next Tuesday?
Sorry I wrote fast and wasn’t clear. I just think that locally people will go with McCain because he already looks like the likely nominee. I could be totally wrong though. As for local Dem’s, its anyone’s guess. I bet they’ll go for Hillary.
Hmm, on further thought I retract my rocket scientist statement. I think local Republicans could go for Romney.
Deb: I like Chesapeake Primary. So do the folks on Eastern Shore.
In the non-scientific online primary I did on rockem blog a while back it stacked up Obama, Edwards and then Clinton.
Which would make a stronger ticket? Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton. I know… Many say that both candidates have too much ego to be the VP for the other, but just for the sake of discussion, what are your thoughts?
And does Edwards figure as a potential VP for either?
I don’t see any combination of Clinton – Obama – Edwards, even though I wouldn’t mind seeing an Obama – Edwards ticket. I think too many egos are involved there. No one wants to be upstaged by their veep.
I could see Richardson being a VP, though. Or Obama – Kathleen Sebelius (she’s the moderate Gov. of Kansas who gave the Dem rebuttal to Bush’s State of the Union). Sebelius and Obama are preaching the same bipartisan sermons.
I think Obama wins in Va (and especially the Shenandoah Valley) because Dems don’t think Hillary can beat McCain.
I don’t think Clinton, Obama or Edwards will be VP. Perhaps Richardson with either Clinton or Obama and Biden with Obama. (Biden has already said he wouldn’t agree to be Clinton’s VP. He doubted that a VP could really be effective and make a contribution with Bill Clinton around.) If Obama wins, he might make Edwards Attorney General.
I could see a Clinton/Obama ticket, but not the other way around. If Hillary wins, I want a McCain/Obama ticket!!
Oh and I have a really bad cold, so sorry if I am making no sense today.
Since Virginia has open primaries, and people like Limbaugh and Dobson are saying they’ll stay home if McCain wins, and the Valley is notoriously conservative, there may be some percentage of Repubs voting for Clinton in an effort to sabotage the Dem primary.
Sabotage is so very Christian, after all.
I doubt that will happen much at all. As Huckabee has been saying all morning on TV, real people can make up their own minds and ignore Limbaugh & Dodson, which is what happened yesterday all through the south.
Thoughts on Obama/Webb or Obama/Kaine?
Chesapeake Primary — Slightly more poetic, because of where the accents fall. Also the P alliteration is always slightly comic, and Potomac Primary puts too much emphasis on DeeCee, Tuesday’s smallest primary and a locality that everyone seems to be running against (which is kind of cute considering the likelihood of two senators on the final ballot).
Winner? Obama should benefit from a slight bump in student voting. The Breeze is planning a story telling them they can vote, and probably ought to.
Best ticket? Obama on top (take it how you will). But for the second slot, he needs the gravitas of an LBJ or — forgive me, my brethren — a Cheney. Of the serious Dems who’ve run this year, four are possibilities: Clinton for the symbolism, Richardson for the experience, Biden for the intellect, or Dodd for the hair. Edwards lost the job once, and should accept the accolades of a grateful party as he fades into the 28,000 square-foot sunset.
BTW, students voting should call the registrar, 432-7707, to find out where to vote. Students registered elsewhere in Virginia can still drive home this Saturday to vote.
Anybody: Somebody’s always saying somebody else is going to vote in the other party’s primary to sabotage some other guy. Anybody know if this has ever really happened, or if it’s just an electoral fantasy of that tiny fraction of us who are wonkish enough to truly understand how voting works?
I’m talking about actual statistical stuff here, not something like, “My cousin talked to somebody at the gas station who said he heard ….”
Well, I don’t know how much weight my opinion should have since I picked Obama and Romney to win California, but hopefully I know this valley better than those valleys.
From what I have seen locally, older Democratic voters lean toward Clinton, but the more active a Democrat, the greater likelihood they support Obama. Most Edwards supporters I have spoken with are supporting Obama now.
Usually I would assume that since older voters make up a large percentage of the local Democratic committees, that favors Clinton. Since Virginia has a primary, however, I think the extra participation will help Obama.
So Harrisonburg will go strongly for Obama, but Rockingham will be tighter depending on where the Edwards people end up. Shenandoah will go Clinton, unfortunately, while Staunton and Augusta will be solidly for Obama.
On the other side, do not underestimate Ron Paul. He has a better organization here than Huckabee.
I don’t have any stats, but does this count for anything?
And yes, I agree, Adam. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ron Paul swept the Valley.
No. Ann Coulter does not count for anything. At all. Thank you for letting me share.
If this is any indication from today’s DNR, turnout next Tuesday will be interesting. Referring to yesterday, Tuesday 2/5 in the AP piece “Virginians Can’t Wait for Primary”:
“More than 700 callers swamped the State Board of Elections offices, most of them demanding to know why their polling places were closed, said spokeswoman Susan Pollard.”
Geez, some people sure are anxious to vote.
Clinton/Clark is a possibility, too… and much as I’d love to see Webb on a national ticket in a slot like that, I’m personally not ready to see him leave the Senate. At least 4 years of Warner/Webb is something I really look forward to.
The Dems have a deep bench for VP, with assorted interesting choices.
I voted absentee at the registrar yesterday.
13 people already had voted according to the display.
Gonna be an interesting turnout, I hope.
Last night was Clinton’s high tide, and it wasn’t much of a flood. With the proportional delegate counting it looks certain that Obama won Super Tuesday totals, though HRC has a slight overall lead. But Obama already had the momentum, and his fundraising was 3:1 on Clinton recently. California was skewed by the 30% that voted early…before America caught Obama fever.
The guy can set a room on fire. Hillary can’t.
Hillary is going to run low on money in the coming weeks and if she doesn’t win Ohio, she needs to go – Florida/Michigan delegates or not. Dems don’t need to be fighting one another in Denver. I agree with Deona, Hillary would be a good VP choice. Bill could round up the talent and try to get America back to the balanced budgets and prosperity that he left office with. John Edwards MUST be the AG – he could start with an Urban Renewal demolition of K Street lobbyists.
Huckleberry will carry the Valley Republicans, proving once more that some people really ought to stay home, or face Vote Abuser Fees for being a danger to Democracy.
I think Bubby’s right about Hillary running low on money.
Talking Points memo is reporting that the Clinton’s delivered a $5 million self-loan to Hill’s campaign in January. This was after Clinton raised $13.5 million in January, compared to Obama’s $32 million. The $13.5 million does not include the $5 mill loan. This is a cash strapped campaign, with the prospect of Obama seriously outspending Clinton over the next 2 months.
$5 mill is four times Obama’s entire personal net worth.
http://thinkonthesethings.wordpress.com/2007/12/10/saloncom-presidential-candidates-net-worth/
Hey Bubby,
I never said Clinton would be a good VP choice. I don’t think she’d take that post, do you?
Sorry about that Deona. I share your doubts that Clinton would take a VP slot. Her dedication to service appears to be flawed.
Obama/Virginia feels great but is probably premature. Clinton/Obama works, but is not my personal preferred. The Cheney idea was perfect for W in 2000 (gravitas, no political ambition, elder statesmen, national security background). In that vein, why not . . . Obama/Nunn? Nunn is only 70 (younger than McCain?) in 2008. Think about it my Reagan Democrat friends as you decide whether this is the year for you to come home . . ..
I typically vote for Republicans but I think I’m going to vote in the Democratic Primary.
Barnabas,
Can I ask what leads you to this point?
I’m delighted, but also curious.
I’m sure that voting in the Repbulican primary my vote won’t have as much of an affect. With a smaller democratic turn out in this area my vote caries more weight in the Democratic Primary.
This brings up a good point. Should you vote for someone in a primary that you have no interest in voting for in the general election? Is that ethical?
What if you don’t really have a prefference in the Republican Primary, and that you do have a prefferance in the Democratic Primary? I wouldn’t call it unethical I would just call it being honest. AS a matter of fact wouldn’t it make for a much more interesting election if Republicans could only vote in the Democratic Primary and Democrats could only vote in the Republican Primary? Yes, we would always end up with more middle of the road Candidates but we would also end up with people taking a deeper look than just wether there is a D or a R next to the candidates name. Now they would be taking a good honest look at the opposite side and having to look at the issues. Than when the actual election came people would be more likely to vote on the issues rather than the D or the R. I have trended towards Republicans but do vote Democratic on occasion. Maybe I’m just insane…
You seem pretty lucid to me! The reason I asked the question wasn’t to state my opinion. I have an opinion on this matter but it is, as of yet, undeveloped. On one hand my logic tells me that you should vote in the primary for the person you’d like to vote for in the general election. Then I also know about what happened to McKinney in Georgia. When the Republican Party influenced a woman to run in the Democratic Party’s primary against McKinney and then influenced Republicans to vote in the Democratic Primary so that they essentially stole the democrat’s choice from them. Of course that’s what happens when you are a vocal opponent of a Neo Con. It’s nothing to surprising, just horrifically unpatriotic. So far, my opinion stands that I have no business voting in a primary for a republican/democrat unless I intend to vote for them in the General Election. Any contrary thoughts or additions?
My philosophy is this: vote for the best person for the job on the ballot.
The fact that John Edwards will still be on the VA ballot will be a temptation for me. He’s been getting anywhere from 1 – 10 percent of the votes in states that voted after he “suspended his campaign.”
I don’t feel like I’m doing anything underhanded or sneaky. I do vote for Democrats at times and I feel like voting in the Democratic primary. I haven’t fully made up my mind who I am voting for in the general election. It is my vote and I do not take it lightly, throwing it at all the R’s on the Ballot. Our system sucks. In all actuality I would love it if we moved to more of a bracket system like in college hoops. We would vote for individuals head to head in each party until each party was narrowed down to 1 each. I don’t know how we would seed them….
A number of news organizations reported over the weekend that John Edwards met privately with Hillary on Thursday to discuss the possibility of making an endorsement, and will meet with Obama today (Monday). Edwards really is out of the running. He may indeed be the best person on any ballot anywhere to be president, but he’s not a real choice.
In part, I think that Finnegan is wrong; that any vote for Edwards, Dodd, Biden – any of the people who are out of the race- would be symbolic and effectively a waste of the vote.
But then I look at the weekend Washington State results, where Romney got 17%, Ron Paul got 21%, Huckabee got 24% and McCain got 26% and I think that voting for Romney was a rational choice. Repubs are sending a message, and a clear way to do that is with a vote against the front runner, even if it’s for a candidate who has effectively withdrawn.
So, do you despise the choices enough to reject the candidates that are still standing in the race, and cast what is effectively a protest vote?
Since Jan 30, looking at Edward’s numbers; his range is from 1-10% of the vote (Oklahoma is the 10% outlier). On average, he’s been getting about 1.75% the vote since he’s left the race; his median vote has been 1%.
So far, it looks like Repubs are more willing cast protest votes than Dems. Since he’s left the race, Romney got 6% in LA, and 3% in Kansas, and 17% in Washington state.
Well, technically I never said I would. I just said it would be a temptation. I think a lot of voters will be surprised to see all those names on the ballot tomorrow of candidates that have long since dropped out.
My GF and I have already had a “discussion” about this, and she agrees with you, Deb, that it would be a wasted vote.
My wife and I have had the same conversation. I was an Edwards supporter since before he announced in December of 2006. I can’t believe he dropped out, though I’m sure he didn’t want to be called an Obama spoiler when he had little chance of winning the nomination himself (in reality, of course, his supporters have split about 60-40 for Obama, not in the overwhelming numbers expected). So now here we are, with the Republican nomination safely in the hands of a moderate and statesmanly leader. On the Dem side, I distrust Clinton and though I generally like Obama’s charisma he is a major X factor on what he would do as leader of the free world. So I guess the reasonable thing to do is to vote for Obama, hope he clarifies his position before November, and then at least have two reasonable choices.
I don’t consider McCain a reasonable choice. He’s being labeled by the far right as a moderate-liberal, but I’m not buying what Limbaugh and his ilk are selling.
I tend to agree with Matt Welch: McCain is a warmonger on a level that makes Cheney look like a Boy Scout. If you get a chance, give this DN! interview with Welch a listen.
I have little doubt that a McCain victory in November is a one-way ticket to Iran for thousands of young American men. He and Obama couldn’t differ more on matters of foreign policy, which is why I’m leaning toward Obama tomorrow.
Finn, everything I’ve seen suggests that McCain has shifted to the neocon position over the last decade, but that he’s willing to change course based on evidence and what’s best for the country. This is not the most envious of starting points in choosing a candidate, but it’s also a far cry from Romney’s “I’ll do whatever it takes to make you like me” and Bush’s “I’m the decider. And I’ve already decidered.” approaches.
I’d wager Clinton is more likely to take us to war with Iran than McCain. And Obama has repeatedly said missile strikes on Iran could be necessary under a wide variety of circumstances. In fact, what Obama says about dealing with Iran sounds a lot like what McCain has said before.
The “neocon” position?
McCain-Feingold (campaign finance reform, 1st amendment violation)
McCain-Kennedy (immigration “reform”, let the floodgates open???)
McCain-Leiberman (greenhouse gases/global warming scam)
These are hardly “neocon” positions, Jeremy.
McCain-Bush (pre-emptive war, escalation, permanent bases)
These are neocon positions.
Hey Dave, glad you brought it up. Neoconservative principles, according to a founder of the movement, are (from the Wikipedia entry on neoconservatism):
1. Taxes and Federal Budget: “Cutting tax rates in order to stimulate steady economic growth. This policy was not invented by neocons, and it was not the particularities of tax cuts that interested them, but rather the steady focus on economic growth.” In Kristol’s view, neocons are and should be less concerned about balancing fiscal budgets than traditional conservatives: “One sometimes must shoulder budgetary deficits as the cost (temporary, one hopes) of pursuing economic growth.” McCain’s stance jives.
2. Size of Government: Kristol distinguishes between Neoconservatives and the call of traditional conservatives for smaller government. “Neocons do not feel … alarm or anxiety about the growth of the state in the past century, seeing it as natural, indeed inevitable.” McCain’s stances vary from the neocon line on this one.
3. Traditional Moral Values: “The steady decline in our democratic culture, sinking to new levels of vulgarity, does unite neocons with traditional conservatives”. Here Kristol distinguishes between traditional conservatives and libertarian conservatives. He cites the shared interest of Neocons and Religious Conservatives in using the government to enforce morality: “Since the Republican party now has a substantial base among the religious, this gives neocons a certain influence and even power.” McCain generally agrees, though his record on gay issues is mixed.
4. Expansionist Foreign Policy: “Statesmen should … distinguish friends from enemies.” And according to Kristol, “with power come responsibilities … if you have the kind of power we now have, either you will find opportunities to use it, or the world will discover them for you.” McCain’s stance on this one is the topic under discussion currently. Here’s what he says about national security.
5. National Interest: “the United States of today, inevitably … [will] feel obliged to defend … a democratic nation under attack from nondemocratic forces …that is why it was in our national interest to come to the defense of France and Britain in World War II … that is why we feel it necessary to defend Israel today.” This is another area where McCain has become more neocon.
A little more on McCain’s shifting philosophy and who is advising him.
I’ve considered this for some time and really have no trouble with the choice I will tomorrow make.
I will vote for change.
I will vote for possibility.
I will vote for the future of my children’s children.
I will vote for a positive and progressive vision, because I believe not only that positive progress is possible, but necessary if we are to have a future.
I will vote for the individual who believes as I do, that if we can conceive it, we can achive it. Human kind is only limited by our own fears and insecurities. I believe with Richard Bach’s Donald Shimoda that if you want to fly, all you have to do is let go…
I will vote for the individual who is courageous and brave enough to meet face to face and eye to eye with our enemies in order to search for the possibility of common ground.
I believe that the people who created the problem while giving it their best effort, will be unable to solve the problem they created because they are too vested in that direction to clearly see.
I will vote for change.
I will vote for Barak Hussein Obama.
Probably a good choice, Lowell. I like him a little more every time I hear him speak.
Like Lowell I too will be voting for Obama in the primary.
This will be the first primary I have ever voted in.
Hopefully, I’ll be able to get my drivers’ license from the CD player in the car.
I’ll be voting the same way Lowell and for the same reasons.
Christa didn’t you threaten to kick me out the other day for wearing my ObamaMama t-shirt? ;)
So tomorrow’s headline should read: “republitarian votes for Democrat named Hussein.”
Yeah, I did. The Republican in me did it. I can’t believe what I said 2 posts ago. I have never voted Democrat. Never. Ever. Something about this guy gives me hope for our country.
McCain just scares me. I never know what his stance is on any issue. He changes it so much. Let me say this. I like Huck better than McCain, but he won’t win it.